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Graph of Plan

AI Regulations Will Be Enforced

AI regulations (EU AI Act, emerging US frameworks) will be actively enforced within 24 months, creating compliance urgency.

The Assumption

Audit trails become urgent when regulations bite. But will they? History suggests:

  • GDPR took years before meaningful enforcement
  • Tech regulation often has bark but no bite
  • Lobbying can water down requirements
  • Enforcement resources are limited

If regulations aren’t enforced, audit trails remain “nice to have”. Nomos Cloud loses urgency.

Evidence

Supporting signals:

  • EU AI Act has passed with specific requirements
  • GDPR fines eventually became significant
  • Financial services AI already heavily regulated
  • Public pressure for AI accountability growing

Counter-signals:

  • 36+ months before first AI Act enforcement likely
  • US regulatory landscape fragmented and uncertain
  • Enforcement requires technical expertise regulators lack
  • Safe harbors and exceptions may be broad

What Would Prove This Wrong

  • 36 months pass with no meaningful enforcement
  • Regulations focus on training, not runtime execution
  • Safe harbor provisions make compliance trivial
  • Enforcement targets only largest companies

Impact If Wrong

If regulations don’t bite:

  • Audit trails become optional feature
  • Nomos Cloud differentiation erodes
  • Enterprise urgency disappears
  • Need to lead with developer experience, not compliance

Testing Plan

Monitoring:

  • EU AI Act implementation timeline
  • First enforcement actions
  • Enterprise RFP language (do they ask about compliance?)
  • Legal and compliance team involvement in AI purchases

Timeline: 24 months to meaningful signal

Hedge: Build audit trails anyway (useful for debugging), but don’t over-invest in compliance-specific features until enforcement is real.

Depends on:

Affects:

Assumption

AI regulations (EU AI Act, emerging US frameworks) will be actively enforced within 24 months, creating compliance urgency.

Depends On

This assumption only matters if these are true:

How To Test

Monitor regulatory enforcement actions. Track enterprise compliance requirements in RFPs.

Validation Criteria

This assumption is validated if:

  • First enforcement actions under EU AI Act
  • Enterprise RFPs mention AI compliance requirements
  • Compliance teams involved in AI tool purchases

Invalidation Criteria

This assumption is invalidated if:

  • 36 months pass with no meaningful enforcement
  • Regulations focus on training, not runtime execution
  • Safe harbor provisions make compliance trivial

Dependent Products

If this assumption is wrong, these products are affected: