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Graph of Plan

Interview WTP Translates to Purchases

Willingness to pay expressed in customer discovery interviews translates to actual credit card purchases at similar price points.

The Assumption

Customer discovery interviews are the foundation of our pricing assumptions. When developers say “I’d pay $100/month for this”, we assume they actually would. But interview WTP and actual WTP are often different:

  • Interviewees want to be helpful and say yes
  • Hypothetical money is easier to spend than real money
  • Context matters—interview ≠ purchase moment
  • Budgets, priorities, and alternatives change

All our pricing ($50-200/month for SmartBoxes) comes from stated WTP. If stated WTP is 3x actual WTP, our unit economics break.

Evidence

Supporting signals:

  • Customer discovery is industry standard practice
  • Experienced interviewers can calibrate for optimism
  • Pre-orders and waitlists provide harder signals
  • Competitive pricing provides anchor points

Counter-signals:

  • “Would you pay X?” is a leading question
  • People lie to interviewers (unconsciously)
  • Interview context primes positive responses
  • No skin in the game during interviews

What Would Prove This Wrong

  • Actual conversion rates are 3x lower than interview-stated intent
  • Achieved price points are 50%+ lower than stated WTP
  • Free tier users refuse to convert despite prior stated intent
  • Pricing experiments show much lower WTP than interviews suggested

Impact If Wrong

If stated WTP is 3x actual WTP:

  • $150/month stated → $50/month actual
  • Unit economics break at lower prices
  • Need more customers to hit revenue targets
  • May need to find higher-WTP segments

Testing Plan

Validation:

  • Compare interview WTP to actual first purchases
  • Track price sensitivity in conversion funnel
  • Run pricing experiments (different price points shown)

Calibration:

  • Ask “What do you currently pay for similar tools?”
  • Ask “What would make this not worth it?”
  • Use “Van Westendorp” price sensitivity questions

Kill criteria: If actual WTP is less than 50% of stated WTP, our pricing model needs major revision.

Depends on:

Affects:

  • All revenue projections

Assumption

Willingness to pay expressed in customer discovery interviews translates to actual credit card purchases at similar price points.

Depends On

This assumption only matters if these are true:

How To Test

Compare stated WTP in interviews to actual conversion rates and price points achieved.

Validation Criteria

This assumption is validated if:

  • Actual conversion within 50% of interview-stated intent
  • Price points achieved within 30% of stated WTP
  • Early adopters pay without significant negotiation

Invalidation Criteria

This assumption is invalidated if:

  • Stated WTP consistently 3x higher than actual payments
  • Free tier users refuse to convert despite stated intent
  • Pricing experiments show much lower WTP than interviews

Dependent Products

If this assumption is wrong, these products are affected: